There might be a management change at SCO, followed by a
fast
settlement.
The lawsuit will have no long-term effect on Linux and the open
source
community. Despite the lawsuit, Linux adoption is growing,
and will continue
to do so. The lawsuit has not dissuaded users from
deploying Linux, Linux
users fall into two camps with regard to the
lawsuit: the ones who don't
care, and the ones who hate SCO.
Now, some of you are saying, "Mitch, weren't you haranguing us all
last
year about how we should take the SCO lawsuit seriously? Did
you change your
mind about that, fella? Hoping we wouldn't notice
the switcheroo?"
My response: No mind-change at all. You SHOULD take the SCO
lawsuit
seriously. After all, I could be wrong about all of this. As
a
matter of fact, I'm a little bit nervous about including
this
prediction, because it gives me the opportunity to be
SPECTACULARLY
wrong come Jan. 2005. However, I have a plan in place if
that
happens: I'll lie like a rug. I'll claim I never wrote this at
all.
I'll blame it all on Bill Gates.
2. Despite the collapse of the SCO lawsuit, we will see the first
major
court test of the General Public License. Somebody who's not
SCO is going to
sue to get the GPL overturned. That entity will,
unlike SCO, have enough
facts and law to back up its claim to make
the lawsuit viable (although maybe
not enough facts and law to win).
That lawsuit may well not be resolved by
Jan. 2005; when it is
resolved, the GPL may have to be modified
significantly, but the
basic spirit of the GPL will stand up.
3. We'll see the first major pilot of desktop Linux in deployment
to
general business users by a U.S. Global 2000 corporation. The
company
will roll out a few dozen or a few hundred seats to see if
Linux is a viable
alternative to Windows on the desktop. I don't
THINK that we'll see a major
corporation standardizing on Linux on
the desktop -- but it could
happen.
The penguin is the mascot of Linux, and when it comes to trying out
new
technology, big companies are like penguins. Here's how a flock
of penguins
jump into the water: They all stand around on the edge
of a pool, shoulder to
shoulder (do penguins even HAVE shoulders?
Never mind. Stay with me on this),
and jostle and bump each other.
Eventually, one of the penguins is knocked
into the pool. The other
penguins watch for a little while to see if the
first penguin gets
eaten by anything -- if it's safe, the other penguins jump
in.
As soon as the first big company has a successful, widespread
Linux
deployment on the desktop, others will follow quickly.
4. Linux won't gain significant desktop market share in 2004, but
it
will in 2005. That's when the fun REALLY starts, as Microsoft faces
its
first real competition for the desktop market since the 1980s.
5. Linux will continue to be Public Enemy Number One for Microsoft,
but
the competition won't hurt the Linux community. Indeed, both the
Linux
community and Microsoft will be stronger for the competition.
6. Mozilla will not gain significant market share against
Microsoft
Internet Explorer, but Mozilla users will continue to love
their
browser.
7. Proprietary vendors will borrow techniques from the open
source
community, including code-sharing and bringing users into
the
development process. Microsoft has already started that.
My next three predictions are pretty obvious. We'll look back a
year
from now and they will be right, but I won't deserve any credit
for
making these predictions, because they're as easy as predicting
the
sun will rise tomorrow. Nonetheless, I'm including them anyway
because
they'll be stories to watch in 2004. Also, they round out
the prediction
numbers to an even 10, which pleases my fussy little
heart.
8. Novell will emerge as a Linux powerhouse after completion of the
SUSE
acquisition. That pleases me, I like Novell, they're a nice
company to do
business with.
9. We'll see distros based on the new 2.6 kernel, making Linux
even
better for desktops and enterprise applications.
10. Linux will continue to grow and gain market share.
------- Advertisement -------------------
Maximize the potential of Linux with CA Management Software.
CA
solutions can backup, secure and manage your Linux
implementation, while also
allowing seamless integration into
your existing infrastructure. As a result,
Linux can be easily
adopted into your enterprise. To find out more about our
continuing
commitment to Linux innovations, visit
http://www.ca.com/linux
-----------------------------------------
IN THIS ISSUE
1. Only The Best Linux And Open-Source News
2. How-To:
Find Open-Source Documentation
3. Trends: Linux Gaining Support In Embedded
Systems
4. Voting Booth: What's The Best Linux Distro?
5. News/Analysis:
SCO Faces Deadline In IBM Case - Rooney
6. Expert Views: Opinion: Enterprises
Must Embrace Linux And Grid
Computing - Bertin
7. Find Network Management
Tools In Product Finder
8. Check Out The Linux Pipeline Topic
Categories
- Core Linux
- Applications
- Enterprise Open Source
- Business
9. Tell A Colleague
About Linux Pipeline Newsletter
10. Have You Discovered The Other
Pipelines?
11. Change Your Subscription Options
1. ONLY THE BEST LINUX AND OPEN-SOURCE NEWS
7. FIND NETWORK MANAGEMENT TOOLS IN PRODUCT FINDER
This week, wade into
Network Management category in Linux Pipeline's
Product Finder:
For other Product Finder product categories, browse or search
the
database from its home page:
8. CHECK OUT THE LINUX PIPELINE TOPIC CENTERS
9. TELL A FRIEND
If you know a colleague or co-worker who might be
interested in
signing up for this newsletter, please forward it to him or her
and
point out the subscription page:
10. HAVE YOU DISCOVERED THE OTHER PIPELINES?
Linux Pipeline is one
is a series of specialized IT sites that might
be to your liking. Here are
five others, and you can expect more in
the future:
------- Advertisement -------------------
Maximize the potential of Linux with CA Management Software.
CA
solutions can backup, secure and manage your Linux
implementation, while also
allowing seamless integration into
your existing infrastructure. As a result,
Linux can be easily
adopted into your enterprise. To find out more about our
continuing
commitment to Linux innovations, visit
http://www.ca.com/linux
-------------------------------------------