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Linux Pipeline Newsletter www.LinuxPipeline.com Tuesday, June 28, 2005 In This Issue: - Supreme Court Orders Trial In File-Sharing Case - Microsoft Expands Its Indemnity Program - Java's B-Day: Look Who's 'Opening' Gifts - More News... - Microsoft Aims To Lead Smartphone Market Within Three Years - Review: Three Free (And One Really Free!) E-Mail Apps - Analysis: Is Sun's Open-Source Strategy A Winning Mix? - More Picks... Join InformationWeek for a FREE, OnDemand TechWebCast on Managing Applications for Real Business Value. Learn how the right tools help create a collaborative, 360-degree view of critical applications. Register and View Today! http://www.techweb.com/webcasts/wily050405 ----------------------------------------- Editor's Note: Dialing For Dollars About a month ago, I ran a feature on Linux Pipeline looking ahead to the Next Big Thing in the mobile industry: smartphones. I learned several important things from this article. First, and most unfortunately, I discovered that smartphones won't be able to launch swarms of killer 'droids that hunt down telemarketers and suck their brains out of their heads. Second, I learned that the smartphone market is wide open, growing faster than a head tumor, and likely to create enough wealth to make today's mobile moguls look like a bunch of dirt-poor hillbillies. Third, I learned that an awful lot of people -- including yours truly -- assume that when the dust settles, Linux will either dominate the smartphone market or at least claim a handsome share of the spoils. Over the past several weeks, the market proved Mobile Pipeline Editor David Haskin right: we've seen a constant flow of news on the topic, and all of it reflects the growing pains inherent in a fast-growing, viciously competitive new market. As a result, I've decided it's time to revisit some of my own assumptions on the subject -- and as part of that process, I intend to pick a few of your brains and perhaps challenge your own assumptions about the role Linux will play in the new mobile market. Here's my first and most important assumption: I don't think smartphones will succeed based on any revolutionary new features. We've gone through a staggering number of those already over the past decade, and frankly, I think even the most tech-savvy mobile gadget users are hitting their limits. Instead, the winners will have to pack the same stuff into much smaller, yet also easier to use packages -- no small feat, given a feature set that is often spread across three or four separate devices today. These devices will have to incorporate kernels capable of managing complex, high-bandwidth network operations, all without wasting scarce hardware resources. They'll also have to be as good as bulletproof: System software that emits gurgling noises and spits up teeny-tiny little Blue Screens of Death when you try to call Mom and surf the Web at the same time need not apply. The handset vendors will have a few other, not-so-modest demands to make. They'll expect software platforms that give them short development cycles, low production costs, a superb user interface model -- oh, and the ability to ape whatever the competition is doing, exactly five minutes after they do it. I'm missing a few things, but you get the point. Obviously, Linux isn't the perfect solution for this market. Instead of an innovative user interface, for example, all it can offer smartphone vendors is a good, hard beating with an ugly stick. What Linux lacks in UI pizazz, however, it makes up with its rock-solid technical chops and amazing adaptability -- both huge advantages in a market with tiny margins, appalling churn rates, and zero tolerance for time-to-market screw-ups. Yet Linux has another handicap to overcome if it hopes to win the smartphone wars: a distinct lack of here-and-now market share. To change this fact, Linux could try a frontal assault on the current market leader: Symbian. That's no easy task, considering that Symbian currently runs half of the world's handsets and that its biggest customers -- Nokia, Samsung, and Sony Ericsson -- are also its owners. This is where I end up making a leap of faith about the role Linux will play in tomorrow's mobile market. Even without taking on Symbian head-to-head, Linux can still build a solid base -- if today's press releases turn into tomorrow's production decisions.NTT DoCoMo, Japan's biggest wireless operator, has committed to using both Symbian and Linux -- but not Microsoft. And PalmSource is in the midst of an effort to rebuild the Palm OS interface layer on top of a customized Linux kernel it acquired along with its purchase of China MobileSoft last year. If both of these branches bear fruit, Linux will have a solid start in the smartphone market. Better yet, it will have a superb start in the Asian smartphone market -- the same market where I'm betting Microsoft is headed for disaster at the hands of open-source competitors and indifferent consumers. So there's my line of reasoning -- and many of you must have a similar train of thought, given the poll numbers I discuss below. Or do you? Is your faith that Linux will rule the smartphone market just a bunch of knee-jerk open-source chauvinism; a gut feeling that you can justify but not necessarily support; or the best way to interpret the facts as you see them? For that matter, am i seeing this picture clearly, or is it really time to get back on my meds before they take away my Plastic Spoon Privileges again? Talk to me, folks. Or yell, or send smoke signals, or communicate in any way that floats your boat. The conventional wisdom says that Linux is going to own this market, and whenever the conventional wisdom gets behind an idea, I start to get nervous. Drop me a line, and I'll drop one back -- I promise. Stupid User Tricks Here we are at the end of June, and at the end of our month-long Great-Tech-Call-'Em-Like-You-See-'Em Contest. And while I'm happy that very soon I won't ever have to write that phrase again, I'm also happy to say that we've gotten some amazing contributions from readers. Your stories -- on favorite software, hardware, future tech trends, or this week's topic -- are grist for our prize mill, and very soon some of you will get some very cool rewards for your contributions including those iPods. You've got one more chance to enter with this week's contest: Stupid User Tricks. If you've got a tech support story to tell, here's your chance to score a prize in the process. It needs to be true -- no urban myths, please -- but besides that, what you do is up to you. Until next time!
Matt McKenzie
Don't let future editions of Linux Pipeline Newsletter go missing. Take a moment to add the newsletter's address to your anti-spam whitelist: linuxed@techwire.com If you're not sure how to do that, ask your administrator or ISP. Or check your anti-spam utility's documentation. Thanks. Top Linux News Supreme Court Orders Trial In File-Sharing Case The high court has ordered MGM's copyright-infringement lawsuit against Grokster back to a lower court for trial, ruling that file-sharing services such as Grokster are not automatically immune from liability for users' actions.
Microsoft Expands Its Indemnity Program
Java's B-Day: Look Who's 'Opening' Gifts
FTC Report Mulls Pros, Cons Of Peer-To-Peer
Artesyn, Wind River Partner On Carrier-Grade Linux Servers,
Support
New EBay Tools Target Open-Source Developers
Open-Source Content Management Startup In Experienced Hands
JBoss Looks To Partner With Government Integrators
Spoofing Exploit Affects IE, Firefox Browsers
New Tool Rolls Open-Source Pieces Into IT Management Solution
Editor's Picks Microsoft Aims To Lead Smartphone Market Within Three Years The chief of Microsoft's mobile and embedded division is promising something that seems counterintuitive: a complex suite of features in a smart phone that's cheap and easy to use and in so doing take the lead in the smartphone market within three years.
Review: Three Free (And One Really Free!) E-Mail Apps
Analysis: Is Sun's Open-Source Strategy A Winning Mix?
Open-Source Business: Hardware Still A Big Part Of Sun's Strategy
Opinion: Supremes' Rulings Leave Geeks Singing The Blues
Contest #4: Helpless User Stories
Executive Q&A: IBM's Linux Strategist Explains Gluecode Deal
Opinion: Telecoms' Answer To Free Muni Wi-Fi -- Whine, Lie, And
Lobby Cast Your Vote Now! This week, we're going with a sweet, simple, and very important question: Have you tried a Linux Live CD distro yet? Vote early, vote often (or try to vote often, we supposedly fixed that little problem).
Poll Results: Last Week's Poll Try Linux Pipeline's RSS Feed Linux Pipeline's content is available via RSS feed: Get RSS link. The feed is also auto-discoverable to many RSS readers from the Linux Pipeline home page. Note: RSS feeds are not viewable in most Web browsers. You need an RSS reader, Web-based service, or plug-in to view RSS. Find out which RSS readers the Pipeline editors recommend.
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